Power, Image, and Machiavellian Survival (7)
Giants and Lilliputians of the HOA: Power, Image, and Machiavellian Survival
Part Seven
Introduction
The central argument of this essay is simple: the Horn of Africa’s instability has never been caused by its diversity, but by leaders who repeatedly manipulate that diversity for political survival. Across Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, and Djibouti, rulers have taken deep social cleavages—regional, religious, linguistic, clan-based, or historical—and transformed them into tools of control. Identity becomes something engineered from above, often through coercion, distortion, or selective storytelling. Charismatic leaders present themselves as the embodiment of national unity while deepening the very fractures they claim to heal.
This pattern transcends borders. From Haile Selassie’s imperial project to Isaias Afwerki’s revolutionary authoritarianism, from Ethiopia’s shifting visions of statehood under Meles Zenawi and Abiy Ahmed to Somalia’s descent from Aden Osman’s civilian rule into Siad Barre’s dictatorship and the warlord era, to Sudan’s revolving door of autocrats and military rulers—the logic remains unmistakably consistent. Leadership, not diversity, lies at the center of the region’s recurring crises. What remains constant is the exploitation of identity for political control, often through selective memory and coercion.
To understand why the region struggles to break free from this cycle, we must examine how political cultures are formed, how historical narratives are manipulated, and how identity becomes a battlefield rather than a bridge. Only by confronting these patterns honestly can the region imagine a future rooted not in the charisma of individuals, but in durable, fair, and inclusive institutions.
- Machiavellian Foundations of the EPLF
The Rise of the PLF: Division as a Political Method
Eritrea offers one of the clearest illustrations of a nation that began independence with hard-won unity (relatively), historical consciousness, and continental lessons at its disposal—yet reproduced the very failures it sought to escape. The roots of this tragedy stretch back to the liberation era, long before statehood.
Isaias Afwerki understood early that unity could be engineered as effectively through fear as through inspiration. He also learned the inverse: mistrust could be cultivated deliberately, producing division even in the absence of real grievances. Somalia provides a parallel example—communities fearing one another not because of actions, but because of narratives carefully planted in their minds.
Within the ELF, Isaias witnessed firsthand how rumor, factional competition, and suspicion could immobilize a movement more effectively than enemy fire. These observations shaped the political culture he later built within the PLF/EPLF: loyalty monitored rather than assumed, ideological conformity enforced rather than debated, and organizational unity maintained through vigilance and fear.
Thus, long before 1991, the seeds of authoritarianism had already taken root in Sahil.
Exposing the Falsehoods of the 1977 NDP
The EPLF’s 1977 National Democratic Programme attempted to rewrite history to justify the movement’s split from the ELF and claim exclusive revolutionary legitimacy. Two key distortions reveal this strategy:
The Myth of “Traditional Leaders” Founding the ELF
The founders of the ELF—Idris Mohammed Adem, Osman Saleh Sabbe, and Idris Galadewos—were not “self-exiled traditional leaders.” They were modern, urban, educated political actors shaped by constitutional debate, global anti-colonial movements, and international diplomacy. Labeling them “traditional” was not analytical; it was a political weapon designed to portray the ELF as backward while elevating the EPLF as the sole modern force.
Ironically, Isaias later collaborated with or employed some of these same figures (Sabbe and Galadewos) while condemning the broader ELF leadership to exile, denying heroes like Ahmed Nasser and Seyoum Ogbamichael even the dignity of burial in the homeland they fought to free.
The False Claim of Religious and Ethnic Division
The NDP’s assertion that the ELF divided itself into zones based on religion or ethnicity is historically inaccurate. The ELF’s organizational structure, inspired by the Algerian FLN, sought national cohesion through cross-regional integration. One-third of fighters in each zone came from other regions—an intentional strategy to build unity.
These distortions were crafted to delegitimize the ELF and elevate the EPLF as the only legitimate vanguard. The authoritarian logic of the post-1991 state began here—with narrative control, selective memory, and political myth-making.
Purging the Cradle: Betrayal as Blueprint
Isaias’s approach to dissent was consistent: not negotiation, but elimination. Movements such as the Menkae Group, the Bitsay Goitom Group, and the Yemin were crushed, not allowed safe passage or pluralistic debate like the one given to the Obel group. Even the G-15, representing Eritrea’s broad diversity, suffered the same fate. These purges were not accidents—they were rehearsals for the governance style that took shape after independence.
Weaponizing Regionalism
Despite condemning “regionalism,” Isaias privately manipulated it, weakening the very regions—Hamasien and Akeleguzay—that formed the backbone of the EPLF’s early support. This echoed older imperial tactics.
- Imperial Echoes and Identity Politics
Administrative Reconfiguration: From Haile Selassie to Isaias
Haile Selassie redrew Ethiopia’s provincial boundaries to dilute regional power and suppress resistance. Isaias adopted a parallel tactic in Eritrea, renaming historic provinces in an effort to dissolve long‑standing regional identities. Yet these identities were never colonial constructs—they were organic expressions of Eritrean heritage. Attempts to erase them only deepened diaspora resistance and rekindled regional pride, especially among the new generations who fled their so‑called “liberated” homeland to escape hopelessness, despair, oppression, and servitude.
Identity as Birthmark: Cleavages and Possibilities
Religious and ethnic identities run deep in the societies of the Horn; they cannot simply be wished away. The challenge is not their existence but the failure of leadership to cultivate trust across them. Without a civic national identity grounded in shared rights and durable institutions, diversity becomes a battleground rather than a foundation.
Both Christianity and Islam teach that there should be no moral distinction between Jew and Gentile, Arab and non‑Arab—not as a call to erase ethnic or racial identity, but as an affirmation of equality, piety, and dignity before the Creator. Two millennia later, Jews and Gentiles still exist; a century and a half later, Arabs and non‑Arabs still exist. What endures is not sameness, but the principle that difference does not diminish humanity.
Historical Roots of Representation
Educational access under colonialism and empire shaped the leadership of both the ELF and EPLF. Catholics, Protestants, and Muslims—who had broader access to missionary or external schooling—were often overrepresented. This imbalance reflected structural realities, not conspiracy.
Similarly, demographic claims such as “Eritrea is 70–80% Muslim” are politically charged exaggerations. Real data suggest a more balanced population, with Christians likely forming a modest majority. But the real point is this: Eritrea’s strength never came from demographic dominance, but from a shared struggle against colonization.
- Ethiopia’s Fragmentation: From Empire to Federalism
A Century of Failed Answers
Ethiopian leaders have grappled with the same question for generations: How do you hold together a country composed of many nations?
- Haile Selassie attempted imperial centralization.
- Mengistu relied on military force.
- Meles introduced ethnic federalism.
- Hailemariam bridged transition without a clear model.
- Abiy embraced personal charisma and messianic rhetoric.
Each approach misdiagnosed the core problem: unity cannot be engineered from above; it must be cultivated through trust and equitable institutions. Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan now confront an existential choice: will they remain single nations under federal systems that genuinely honor and protect diversity, or will they follow the path of South Sudan and accept fragmentation as the inevitable consequence of failed nation‑building?
Conclusion
The history of the Horn of Africa shows how easily power is recycled—and how consistently leaders fall into the same trap: manipulating identity, rewriting history, and elevating themselves above the institutions that should guide the nation. From imperial hierarchies to revolutionary authoritarianism, from federal experiments to charismatic centralism, every era reinforces the same lesson: you cannot build unity by exploiting difference.
True stability will come only from civic nationalism, regional cooperation, and leadership grounded in humility and institutional integrity. The future belongs not to giants seeking glory but to citizens demanding dignity—and to institutions strong enough to protect them all.
To Contact the Author: weriz@yahoo.com
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