Destiny of Conflict, and the Red Sea: A Reflection on Power and People
“مشيناها خطى كتبت علينا .. ومن كتبت عليه خطى مشاها
ومن كانت منيته بأرض .. فليس يموت في أرض سواها
“We walk the paths written for us… and whoever has a fate must walk it.
And he whose death lies in a land—shall not die elsewhere.”
— Abul Alaa Al Ma’arri (born 973–died 1057)
This quote from the classical Arab poet Abul Alaa Al Ma’arri reflects a belief held in many faiths: destiny is unchangeable. Some traditions assert divine predetermination, while others advocate free will. These differing worldviews have long been at the root of religious and political strife.
In Ethiopia today, we see how these themes play out dangerously in real time.
ABEN and Abiy: Destabilizing Narratives
Recently, the Amhara splinter party known by its Amharic acronym ABEN issued a statement rejecting Eritrea’s independence. This is the most provocative declaration since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s infamous speech to Parliament, in which he suggested that Ethiopia’s 139 million citizens must have access to the Red Sea—hinting at territorial ambitions toward Eritrea’s port of Assab.
Abiy’s rhetoric marks a return to imperialistic ambitions masked as national strategy. He presents his aims as benign—mere dialogue over access to the sea. Yet his consistent militarization and inflammatory speeches suggest otherwise. “If our generation can’t get it, future generations will,” he said, making it clear that his desire for Assab is not going away.
History Repeating Itself
Since the days of King Haile Selassie, Eritreans have faced repeated denials of their self-determination. After a decade under British trusteeship following WWII, Eritrea was federated with Ethiopia—only to have its autonomy crushed when Haile Selassie lowered the Eritrean flag and dissolved its parliament. That betrayal sparked a 30-year armed struggle, culminating in Eritrean independence in 1991.
Now, after more than three decades as a UN-recognized sovereign state, Eritrea is once again being provoked. But this time, the ambitions come not only from Addis Ababa, but are emboldened by foreign alliances—most notably with the UAE, whose port interests are aligned with Abiy’s aspirations.
Internal and Regional Disarray
Inside Ethiopia, Abiy has inflamed multiple fronts of conflict. From suppressing the Tigray region (despite the Pretoria Agreement) to dividing Amhara factions and even attempting to co-opt Tigray’s TPLF—all to tighten his grip on power. ABEN is just one of the splinter groups he appears to be using in his quest to marginalize the FANO militia.
This pattern—divide, weaken, and rule—has thrown Ethiopia into a deepening crisis. And while Eritrea remains under an authoritarian regime led by Isaias Afwerki, it, too, is crumbling under the weight of lawlessness and unaccountable rule.
A Voice from the Arab Spring
Poet Abul Qasim al-Shabi (Tunisia, 1909–1934) once wrote:
When people choose life, fate will certainly respond
The gloom of night must give way, and chains must be broken.
He who is not moved by the passion for life will vanish in its fire.
Woe to those who do not rise against the victorious void.
إذا الشّعْبُ يَوْمَاً أرَادَ الْحَيَـاةَ = فلا بُدَّ أنْ يَسْتَجِيبَ القَـدَر
وَلا بُـدَّ لِلَّيـْلِ أنْ يَنْجَلِــي = وَلا بُدَّ للقَيْدِ أَنْ يَـنْكَسِـر
وَمَنْ لَمْ يُعَانِقْهُ شَوْقُ الْحَيَـاةِ = تَبَخَّـرَ في حرّهَـا وَانْدَثَـر
فَوَيْلٌ لِمَنْ لَمْ تَشُقْـهُ الْحَيَاةُ = مِنْ صَفْعَـةِ العَـدَم المُنْتَصِر
His words became a rallying cry during the Arab Spring. They are just as relevant in today’s Horn of Africa. The people of the region deserve stability, not the recycled ambitions of kings and warlords.
A Bit of Bitter Humor
An elder, hearing about the horrors of WWII, asked, “If war leads to shiny cities like the ones in Europe, why don’t we start a war with America, and when it destroys us, we ask for a Marshall Plan to rebuild?”
This dark humor reflects a deep truth: we fight wars without the resources, without recovery plans, and without reason—led by leaders who romanticize bloodshed and conquest rather than peace and development.
A Call for Sanity
In 2023, as famine loomed and war spread, I publicly urged the Eritrean government to open its ports for humanitarian aid to Tigray and other suffering regions. At the time, such a suggestion was treated as betrayal. Two years later, the same regime now claims readiness to allow aid through.
Do I laugh, cry, or pull my hair?
History doesn’t need to repeat itself if leaders—on all sides—can find the wisdom to choose dialogue over dominance.
Regional News
Destiny of Conflict, and the Red Sea: A Reflection on Power and People
“مشيناها خطى كتبت علينا .. ومن كتبت عليه خطى مشاها
ومن كانت منيته بأرض .. فليس يموت في أرض سواها
“We walk the paths written for us… and whoever has a fate must walk it.
And he whose death lies in a land—shall not die elsewhere.”
— Abul Alaa Al Ma’arri (born 973–died 1057)
This quote from the classical Arab poet Abul Alaa Al Ma’arri reflects a belief held in many faiths: destiny is unchangeable. Some traditions assert divine predetermination, while others advocate free will. These differing worldviews have long been at the root of religious and political strife.
In Ethiopia today, we see how these themes play out dangerously in real time.
ABEN and Abiy: Destabilizing Narratives
Recently, the Amhara splinter party known by its Amharic acronym ABEN issued a statement rejecting Eritrea’s independence. This is the most provocative declaration since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s infamous speech to Parliament, in which he suggested that Ethiopia’s 139 million citizens must have access to the Red Sea—hinting at territorial ambitions toward Eritrea’s port of Assab.
Abiy’s rhetoric marks a return to imperialistic ambitions masked as national strategy. He presents his aims as benign—mere dialogue over access to the sea. Yet his consistent militarization and inflammatory speeches suggest otherwise. “If our generation can’t get it, future generations will,” he said, making it clear that his desire for Assab is not going away.
History Repeating Itself
Since the days of King Haile Selassie, Eritreans have faced repeated denials of their self-determination. After a decade under British trusteeship following WWII, Eritrea was federated with Ethiopia—only to have its autonomy crushed when Haile Selassie lowered the Eritrean flag and dissolved its parliament. That betrayal sparked a 30-year armed struggle, culminating in Eritrean independence in 1991.
Now, after more than three decades as a UN-recognized sovereign state, Eritrea is once again being provoked. But this time, the ambitions come not only from Addis Ababa, but are emboldened by foreign alliances—most notably with the UAE, whose port interests are aligned with Abiy’s aspirations.
Internal and Regional Disarray
Inside Ethiopia, Abiy has inflamed multiple fronts of conflict. From suppressing the Tigray region (despite the Pretoria Agreement) to dividing Amhara factions and even attempting to co-opt Tigray’s TPLF—all to tighten his grip on power. ABEN is just one of the splinter groups he appears to be using in his quest to marginalize the FANO militia.
This pattern—divide, weaken, and rule—has thrown Ethiopia into a deepening crisis. And while Eritrea remains under an authoritarian regime led by Isaias Afwerki, it, too, is crumbling under the weight of lawlessness and unaccountable rule.
A Voice from the Arab Spring
Poet Abul Qasim al-Shabi (Tunisia, 1909–1934) once wrote:
When people choose life, fate will certainly respond
The gloom of night must give way, and chains must be broken.
He who is not moved by the passion for life will vanish in its fire.
Woe to those who do not rise against the victorious void.
إذا الشّعْبُ يَوْمَاً أرَادَ الْحَيَـاةَ = فلا بُدَّ أنْ يَسْتَجِيبَ القَـدَر
وَلا بُـدَّ لِلَّيـْلِ أنْ يَنْجَلِــي = وَلا بُدَّ للقَيْدِ أَنْ يَـنْكَسِـر
وَمَنْ لَمْ يُعَانِقْهُ شَوْقُ الْحَيَـاةِ = تَبَخَّـرَ في حرّهَـا وَانْدَثَـر
فَوَيْلٌ لِمَنْ لَمْ تَشُقْـهُ الْحَيَاةُ = مِنْ صَفْعَـةِ العَـدَم المُنْتَصِر
His words became a rallying cry during the Arab Spring. They are just as relevant in today’s Horn of Africa. The people of the region deserve stability, not the recycled ambitions of kings and warlords.
A Bit of Bitter Humor
An elder, hearing about the horrors of WWII, asked, “If war leads to shiny cities like the ones in Europe, why don’t we start a war with America, and when it destroys us, we ask for a Marshall Plan to rebuild?”
This dark humor reflects a deep truth: we fight wars without the resources, without recovery plans, and without reason—led by leaders who romanticize bloodshed and conquest rather than peace and development.
A Call for Sanity
In 2023, as famine loomed and war spread, I publicly urged the Eritrean government to open its ports for humanitarian aid to Tigray and other suffering regions. At the time, such a suggestion was treated as betrayal. Two years later, the same regime now claims readiness to allow aid through.
Do I laugh, cry, or pull my hair?
History doesn’t need to repeat itself if leaders—on all sides—can find the wisdom to choose dialogue over dominance.