The Road To NCDC: Challenges And Opportunities

These are the main highlights of the presentation I gave in a seminar in Birmingham on 09.07. 2011. The seminar was organized by Eritrean Cultural Forum in Birmingham:

Stock assessment:

• Our basic background: What? -Will always be part of us
• How we dealt/ deal with it?           -Our experience
• How does it look? Where we stand? -What have we learned/ did not learn?
• NCDC (National Conference for Democratic Change) -a means to an end

Our geographical Contrasts:

• Highland – lowland
• Plateau to Red Sea
• Landscape in Dankalia: Formidable desert, artistic volcanic rocks, ostriches
• Massawa – global gateway: Citizens of the Red Sea
• Geographical contrasts influence cultural, economic, social & political contrasts

Our social contrasts:

• Muslim / Christian /animist
• Farmer / Pastoral / traders
• Ethnicity (homogeneity /diversity

Our political contrasts:

• Local: ELF / EPLF (PFDJ)
• Region:  Arab / Israeli
• Memberships in regional and international organisations

Our main problems with our contrasts:

• Denial of the other (Exclusion / Negation)
• Failure to cherish, to value, to enjoy the diversity
• We define with one perspective
• Claiming to be vanguard: I know what is good for you (elitist arrogance)
• Failure to read and understand history
• Failure to reach out to all internally & externally
• There is place only for one political organization (party), line of thought
• You agree with me 100 % or you are my enemy
• You show you are good by attacking others not highlighting your merits

History of conflict resolution:

• Culture of violence
• Resolving conflicts through force:
• ELF – ELM
• ELF – PLF
• Within ELF: ‘yemin’ ‘falol’
• Within EPLF: ‘yemin’ ‘menkae’
• Proliferation of organizations, if disagree can have ones own organization

Consequences of the defeat of the ELF and hegemony of the EPLF

• Proliferation of political organizations
• Appearance of religious and ethnic based organizations
• EPLF social engineering of tigrinization in all fields, defining ethnicity
• Sowing of strong mistrust among Eritreans to the extent of questioning living together
• Still some claim we are perfect: regime has done us no harm

Positive development in the last decade:

• ENA/EDA  a positive development: a political exercise for tolerance & democratic practice though far from perfect
• A rift within EPLF/PFDJ leadership: G13, G15
• Development of civic societies in the Diaspora
• NCDC: a breakthrough in bridging differences & Bringing us together again
• Vibrant opposition media
• Exposure of regime’s brutality & self isolation & excesses

Current characteristics of our political and civic organizations

• Both are weak
• Limited in influence (constituency)
• Some have few members
• Divided by our contrasts: most dominated by ethnic, religious, regional despite national claims
• Some are not independent
• Some elitist to say the least
• Need not under- or overestimate each other

The need to work together:

• We are under very special circumstances
• We need to mobilize all resources against the brutal dictatorial regime that does not give any breathing space: urgent
• NCDC meant to do that, best possible alternative we have, if some have a better alternative present it
• Civic societies can have a positive influence on political organizations
• Can play their role from within not from outside
• Practicing democracy
• Working together widens diversity and promotes tolerance
• We will always have differences in policies, approach & processes: healthy

Towards changing the regime, we need a code of conduct:

• To respect each other’s choice of struggle
• To refrain from defaming each other
• To tolerate each other’s views
• There is no absolute truth
• Only history will show who was correct
• Talk and listen to those with different opinion
• To show one is better by focusing on own merits not on failures of opponents

How was the road to the national conference in 2010:

• There was a concerted effort by EPDP (though was part of the process) and its affiliates to foil it with ‘meskerem’ leadership (same trend again)
• To disagree OK, defame NO
• It was portrayed:

–      an all Muslims conference
–      An agenda of the Weyane
–      Badly prepared
–      Papers not discussed beforehand

• Despite all thorns, it was a success

Why the 2010 conference was a success:

• Widest peoples’ dialogue in the last 3 decades irrespective of outcome vs. ‘waelaa halibo’
• A journey of discovery & healing & understanding
• Microcosm of Eritrea: ethnic, religious, political diversity
• Bridged the gaps
• Improved trust
• Created alliance of civic and political organizations
• Laid foundation for a new relationship with Ethiopia
• Touched and discussed and agreed on all major issues
• Paved the way for a transitional phase after the fall of the regime to avoid vacuum
• Created a wide popular global movement for democratic change
• Paved the way for a wider national conference
• Gave hope to the Eritrean people & scared the regime
• Those who opposed it became even more marginalized: split of EPDP

The shortcomings of the 2010 conference:

• Translation problem: Papers & communiqué
• Logistics problem: tickets & reservations
• Financial dependency
• Some documents prepared in haste
• No input on strategy for regime change
• The papers presented were not discussed beforehand
• Ineffective use of time
• No clear cut roles of EDA & NCDC

On those who attended: how Amanuel Sahle described it

• All were there:
• The victim of Shaebia who fled to Shimelba or Mai Aini
• including the regionalist,
• the fanatic,
• the odd man out,
• the pain in the neck,
• the provocateur,
• the nihilist,
• the killjoy,
• the schizophrenic (whose mind swayed between PFDJ and the Wa’ala),
• the ELF member with a grudge in his heart,
• the painter,
• the poet, the
• singer, etc.
• All came to listen and to be heard.

On the road to the next conference: Challenges related to process & procedures

• Build trust to ensure widest participation
• Transparency
• Representation: organizations, civil societies, individuals, election of representatives
• Finance: fund raising
• Facing elite internet warriors: we only possess the truth
• Political organizations & civic organizations appreciating roles of each other
• How to deal with areas of disagreement
• Translation: need to ensure high quality
• Decisions & ownership
• Future structural organizational choices: How far we should go & clarify roles
• Need more work in Sudan & Ethiopia to ensure broader qualitative participation
• Focus on mobilizing the youth & women
• Engage actively to assist asylum seekers and refugees
• Make best use of social media and networking
• The regime is scared of any opposition gathering
• The regime will unleash a campaign spearheaded by ‘meskerem’ and its other satellites against its convening and later try to discredit the outcome
• We need to expose this and challenge it, but need to listen to genuine concerns
• Some will even attend and try to distract us from within
• There will be some in the opposition who will not attend for various reasons which is within their rights: Let us refrain from defaming them even if they do so
• Misconception & underestimation that all those who opt to attend are homogenous, have same opinion and understanding and will try enforce their views on others: far from it they are very diverse

Challenges related to issues:

• Agenda: draft transitional constitution: need & how far to go/ others
• Peaceful/all means: EDF are victim, not to be targeted
• Issues missing:

–      Mechanisms & strategies of regime change
–      National reconciliation (included in transitional council item 64/65 + peace & peoples interaction 70/71)
–      Peace & order

• Relations with Ethiopia
• Future organizational structure

–      what form
–      How far

• Future role of EDA/ individual political organizations

Opportunities:

• Assert that ultimate power lies within the People of Eritrea and whatever we do or programs we suggest has to be ratified in free Eritrea
• We have the luxury of being able to express ourselves freely and we have every right to draft mechanisms, suggest roadmap or charter to facilitate smooth transfer of power
• Can mobilize all our resources for a regime change and creation of democratic country
• Can give our people hope that we stand together
• Can send a strong message to international community that we are a better alternative to the regime
• Those who become members of the transitional structure not to run for office in the first elections

Moh.kheir33@hotmail.com