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The UAE and the Horn of Africa Threesome

Since Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia’s prime minister in the spring of 2018, he has met with Isaias Afwerki at least a dozen times. On Sunday, Abiy Ahmed arrived in Eritrea once more. This time, he is accompanied by Lemma Megersa, the Ethiopian defense minister.

Also, after his first visit to Eritrea in July, 2019, the Somali president Mohamed Formaggio has since became a close ally of both Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki. He is visiting Eritrea for the third time to meet with the two leaders who are closely allied with Mohammed Bin Zayed of the UAE.

Ironically Formaggio still maintains good relations with Qatar, a country that is boycotted by the Saudi-UAE alliance. Both Isaias and Abiy have been trying to lure Formaggio to the Horn of Africa block which is sponsored by Mohammed Bin Zayed, the UAE crown prince.

Formaggio who is now considered the third angle of the mysterious Abiy-Isaias triangle, is visiting Eritrea for the third time since July 2019, twice in this month alone.

So far, the information about the meetings is kept secret and after each meeting, only scanty information is unofficially disclosed. While the vague official reports contain only redundant diplomatic terms like, “discussion of mutual development, economic, and security cooperation, etc.”

Eritrea is the only country among the three that doesn’t have a parliament, or a constitution and it never held an election. Since 1991, the unelected president Isaias Afwerki has been ruling Eritrea though his PFDJ party.

Regional analysts believe the “economic discussions among the three leaders revolved around the joint security and development aid funds provided by the UAE… both Eritrea and Ethiopia are procuring arms.”

Eritrean sources informed Gedab News that, “the three leaders allied with the UAE hold frequent meetings to discuss allocation of funds for their joint security and military projects after they receive studies conducted by delegated commissions.”

Based on the joint military and security cooperation agreement, Eritrea has already received a portion of the UAE provided funds to cover the cost of training hundreds of Somali soldiers in Eritrea. Our reporters also indicated that Ethiopian forces are being trained in Eritrea. However, it’s is not known whether the training is officially sanctioned by the Ethiopian government or a clandestine operation.

A few weeks ago, the first batch of Somali soldiers graduated after finishing the necessary training.

Tense military situation 

Meanwhile, the Ethiopian-Eritrean border is witnessing an extensive military movement in several regions. While thousands of troops are amassed in North Ethiopia south of the Tigrai region, similar activities were observed close to the Ethiopian and Eritrean border.

Unconfirmed reports indicate that the tense situation between the Tigrai region and the federal Ethiopian government is “untenable and it could snap [anytime] risking a military clash.” The same applies to the feud between the Eritrean and Tigrai regional governments “both of whom appear determined to finish off the other.”

The reports also indicated that Eritrean refugees with military background are being organized and trained in the region. Several Eritrean officers who abandoned the regime and lived in many parts of the world have traveled to Ethiopia.

In the last few months, the Tigrai government has completely disarmed several older Eritrean armed groups that operated in the region. Only two small groups remain with a small armed forces.

Meanwhile, many Eritrean opposition movements are getting organized. Diaspora opposition movements are attracting many people to their ranks and they have established branches all over the world. Several of them are planning to transform their movements into political parties.

In addition, the large opposition parties and organizations are planning for “a decisive meeting to reorganize and revitalize the almost frozen opposition umbrella known as the Eritrean National Council for Democratic Change, or come up with an alternative umbrella group.”

Seesaw between Qatar and the UAE 

Last year, Isaias switched his allegiance to the UAE and abandoned Qatar, a country with which he maintained an excellent relation for many years.

Beginning in 2019, Eritrea has accused Qatar twice of trying to destabilize the country from the Sudanese territories. The Eastern region of Sudan which is adjacent to Eritrea has been going through political crisis since the  overthrow of the Al-Bashir regime in April 2019.

The final blow to the relations between Qatar and Isaias Afwerki came in a press release issued by the Eritrean government on Nov. 28, 2019, that leveled ten accusations against Qatar. The accusations rang from supporting and regrouping the Eritrean opposition forces to planning the assassination of Eritreans leaders.

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