Beware, he has 139 million loyalists!
Dear Eritreans, this is a warning—you are expected to shudder with fear. The Ethiopians are 139 million people; they can easily swallow you! If they come for your cattle, your women, or your men, let them take it all. If they want your seashores, spread a red carpet—or roll the sea itself for them to carry it to Abyssinia. They certainly want to conquer you; God ordained that 3,000 years ago—or so says their divine manual, the Kibre Negest, the handbook of their “elect of God” emperors. All of you squatters in your own country must behave accordingly. They will spread peace, justice, and comfort, as they have always done—though you remain ungrateful.
Don’t assume Abiy Ahmed, the Nobel Prize laureate, is fond of expansionism or a sneaky warmonger. He is simply a vinyl record: a sentimental, romantic tune on one side and a squeaky, ugly mess on the other.
Blame the Rabbits, Not the Breeders
Rabbits become a pest and reproduce in astronomical numbers. Ask the Australians if you doubt it—rabbits outnumber humans nearly 8 to 1.
In 1970, Ethiopia’s population was 28 million. A few decades later, it somehow became 120 million. For three years straight, the government threw out numbers anywhere between 130 and 139 million. The Nobel laureate may inflate the figure to show how many people are lined up to kill or die in his wars—don’t accuse him of lying. If you are statisticians or “professional amateurs,” do your research and try to understand his logic. At least make an attempt.
Good Old Amateurish Science
The learned call it a “census.” Let’s stick with “science” to keep it accessible to the layman. The numbers might be guesswork—but honestly, that’s better than politicized numbers.
Ethiopia has conducted only three censuses after WWII: 1984, 1994, and 2007. All planned censuses afterward were postponed because they needed to start wars to “balance the population.” The death toll since 2018 is not yet counted. It kept rolling into 2020 to make the sample larger. Then COVID arrived uninvited—probably “sent by Egypt”—and ruined everything. But who needs a census when politicians can simply guess? They were smart enough to recycle the 2007 census.
Remember the bloody civil war of 2020? The Oromo Qeerroo protests? The clashes that consumed so many lives and put Ethiopia on a strict population diet? That one. Some Ethiopian scholars insist a census is crucial for planning electoral districts—always complicating the politicians’ lives.
Birtukan Mideksa, a judge and lawyer before joining the Rainbow Party (later part of the CUD), won significant seats in 2005. Troublemakers claimed the election was rigged. In 2010, the ruling party arrested Birtukan and other activists for two years, after which she went into exile.
In 2016, protests ended EPRDF rule. In 2018, Birtukan returned to Abiy’s Ethiopia and became chair of the National Election Board (NEBE). That election didn’t go well. Troublemakers complained it used census data from 2007.
The 2020 census was rescheduled because of the pandemic. Election districts still relied on 2007 data and 1994 demarcations. The government refused to wait and held the election. By late 2020, the problem had erupted into the Tigray War.
Politicization of the Census
Given the hegemonic nature of corrupt governments—guardians of “tradition”—even censuses were politicized. Hegemons avoid elections to protect their grip or conduct them halfheartedly to appease donors; they can always rig both elections and resource allocations.
The 2005 unrest in Ethiopia killed about 200 people; many more were injured. The Qeerroo—Oromo youth protesters—helped bring down the TPLF-dominated EPRDF. Continued unrest eventually lifted Abiy Ahmed to power in 2018.
Abiy recognized the International Boundary Commission’s ruling on Eritrea’s border around the flashpoint of Badme. Tens of thousands died over that scrap of land. Soon after, he decided he needed another flashpoint: Assab, the Red Sea, even Asmara.
State Rights and Aspirations
Ethiopia’s federal system worsens tensions, as each state exaggerates its population to secure a bigger slice of the budget. States with large numbers—or those who feel entitled to more power—keep tensions high.
The census that should have taken place before 2021 never happened. In a complicated ethnic federation, both census and elections are dangerous exercises. Many city dwellers and nomads are excluded from belonging to any state because their birthplace is unclear, their parents come from mixed ethnicities, or they cannot fit neatly into an assigned category—so they are labeled “Other.” One can say Ethiopia’s censuses lack credibility with a straight face.
Despite all this, the Nobel laureate aggressively pushes the 139 million figure and has weaponized it. Yet no one has demanded evidence. There is none.
Population Growth: Curse or Blessing?
A large population is not an asset like cattle. For poor, unstable countries, it is a liability. More people mean more mouths to feed, more jobs to create, and more schools, hospitals, and roads to build. But for a leader obsessed with aggression and expansion, a large population becomes ammunition—a pool of cannon fodder.
Abiy has moved beyond toying with the idea; it has become an open threat, destabilizing the region for the past four years—on top of decades of Ethiopia’s habitual threats to occupy Assab.
China, with all its resources, struggled with population growth and adopted the one-child policy in 1980. Thirty years later, the repercussions linger. China didn’t launch wars to manage its population; it pursued economic development. Yet governments with a fraction of China’s resources—led by autocrats—refuse to learn. They prefer primitive methods of “population control.”
Europe shows that development leads to negative population growth. Wealthy countries tolerate immigration to fill the void and prevent economic collapse. But Ethiopia, like many underdeveloped countries, has a large population and inadequate public services, fragile infrastructure, and high unemployment. Population growth becomes a curse. Warmongers, devoid of respect for life, see it as a blessing—fuel for their ambitions to resurrect mythical empires.
And much of the Ethiopian elite is confused: if population growth is good, why are the youth escaping in droves?
Ethiopia is not self-sufficient in many areas. Adding more people will make life unbearable for future generations if this war culture persists. Ethiopia is not as blessed as Switzerland—even by African standards. It would be wise to stop wielding population figures, verified or not, as a threat to neighbors.
Eritreans—Abiy’s favorite target—numbered barely 3 million when they challenged an occupier ten times their size because the aspiration for freedom is larger than any population figure. How that 30-year challenge unfolded is well-known. Yet Abiy has not learned and thinks he can intimidate Eritreans by displaying war toys and marauding army formations. Eritreans have seen worse. He should heed the Arabic adage: a rational person is not bitten twice from the same hole—once bitten, twice shy.
Access to the Sea
I have long advocated the proper use of Eritrean ports. Patriotism and legality aside, Assab is not a temple but a source of revenue. Eritreans are not fond of watching an idle, underutilized port. It is a commercial outlet and must generate income. Ethiopia, regardless of population size, is an important customer. They should buy a ticket and enter the cinema—not insist on carrying away the chairs or converting the hall into their bedroom. Come in peace and leave in peace. That is what civilized people do.
What must happen is the formalization of port use—rational, mutually beneficial, stable economically and socially, and free of imperial ambitions like those advanced by the UAE.
Awate Forum