Inform, Inspire, Embolden. Reconcile!

Ghosts Of The Horn!

Many of those who will read this and who have read the few that I wrote before are justified in wondering why any Eritrean in his/her right mind would be skipping all the catastrophes that Eritreans are facing and be fixated with unsexy, irrelevant and off-date issues. There are a lot of Eritreans who are facing death and pain in the hands of dictators, jailers, traffickers and by everyone who can inflict pain almost everywhere. There are a lot of Eritreans doing their utmost to free prisoners, support victims and ease the pain of millions. Why ignore all this and go only for what adds pain and torture to our already exhausted spirit? My conviction is that what we see on the ground in terms of places and people being squeezed and crushed are the fault-lines of the tectonics that we need to watch and unless we keep debating the bigger picture and finding solutions that can work; our struggles will be lost in the details and symptoms. Our political opposition is seriously at risk of being taken over by humanitarian activism. Critical as that component of the struggle is – we need to turn back and start changing things on the ground!

Disclaimer: The following may look scientific because it has maps and tables with numbers. It has nothing to do with science and is not intended to make any claim or implication of statistical evidence. They are just numbers gathered from the most unscientific sources in the internet and in coffee-shop gossip places. The best you can do is to read the whole thing – think about its implications – avoid responding or commenting on the credibility of the data. I am telling you it is not credible. Don’t get into the trap: if you get the controversy to be about whether the numbers are accurate or not then it would imply that you have at least agreed on the principle of the validity of squeezing population statistics for clues. If you actually believe that you can guess the phone numbers of bad people by playing around the numbers in population statistics, then I challenge anyone to repeat the calculations with actual accurate numbers drawn from the most reliable sources to produce a different picture.

The data was taken from Wikipedia and is all suspect, made up or reengineered by me personally to fit a hidden agenda. It is relative population Vs land area statistics referring to the countries of the Horn of Africa defined to include only the countries shown in Map #1 below. The numbers are not consistent across tables and may not match reality exactly (in fact some populations may be off by a few million individuals) but they are the closest it can get to plausible gossip, when as we have done here constant ratios are used. Off by a few million?! Yes. Consider them lost in action during calculation – casualties of the next war – or victims of some upcoming catastrophe. The idea is based on a static situation of one point in time rather than a more telling dynamic scenario that would have considered population growth rates.

This is supposed to be for serious discussion. That is why I am not including anything that is colorful or inflammatory or controversial. The intention is to develop one of many possible scenarios for the future as independent states in the Horn of Africa (in one or several pieces each). I do understand the well-justified sensitivity and potential dangers embedded in the reproduction of such maps. My hope here is that people read the maps proactively and employ their genius in reengineering the region back to unity. I will try to make it short by just describing what each of the five maps stands for and how they are related to each other. You won’t miss anything if you just study the maps in their sequence and skip the text and data of this article altogether.

Map 1: Colonial Legacy

asalim1Formally, the national boundaries shown in Map #1 were in effect until 1991 (about 22 years ago). Until then, Sudan was about 20 times bigger than Eritrea, Ethiopia was 10 times bigger, Somalia was 5 times, and Djibouti was just a fifth of Eritrea.  Ethiopia had the highest population density with more than 60 persons per square kilometers. If we assume that the people of Ethiopia were equally distributed such that there was exactly the average density per square kilometer, then each sq km would have to be split to a plot of a little more than 122 meters by 122 meters per individual. In Sudan the plot size per individual would be about four times that of Ethiopia, in Somalia even better and in Djibouti too. Ethiopia was the worst place to dream of owning land.

But that is not how it works. Large portions of all countries are not of much use and in places such as Abyssinia there is a big chance that your assigned plot might land on a solid piece of bald rock. There are also the risks of sharing the plot with squirrels, snakes, lizards and bad luck. That’s to say your share is much smaller than the 122 by 122. But that shouldn’t be a concern at all because some European countries have much smaller plots per person and they are doing just fine. The difference is that in a developing country where more than three quarters of the populations are farmers, the value of land as such becomes persistently annoying for state administration. It is very likely that three quarters of the individuals in all the countries of the region will think of their plots in terms of arability.    Compare the last column of Table 1 and imagine.

Map #2A: Independent Countries

asalim2aIn 1991 Eritrea split from Ethiopia and twenty years later South Sudan split from the North. The numbers of densities and therefore plot sizes changed accordingly. Both Ethiopians (Setit-Mlash) and Northern Sudanese got squeezed just a bit and plot sizes per person became smaller in both. Eritreans could feel the difference in a few years of post-independence honeymoon and started dreaming. They ended up with much larger plots per person at around 155 by 155 meters at the expense of all Ethiopians losing a little bit. If plot size was the only determinant of the winds of change (i.e. ignoring all other factors that pushed the demand for self-determination), then Eritreans were rational in demanding change.

Table 2 shows the period between Eritrea’s independence before South Sudan’s split from the North and Table 3 only modifies for South Sudan as shown in Map #2A. The dimension of an average Sudanese plot size fell from 250 meters to 243 and Southern Sudanese increase to 275 by 275 meters. Conclusion: Southern Sudanese were rational when they demanded independence.

Map # 2B: Submerged Identities

asalim2bIf we look a little deeper into what happened within those independent states or the trendy fault-line politics in each of those countries we will have an idea of the Ghosts of the Horn wiggling their way out into the open. The colors don’t mean anything as they were picked randomly. As you know fault-line politics in Eritrea is played along the Lowland-Highland-Dankalia divide. Here fault-line politics is not about painting chunks of nations on the basis of “eye-color classification”.  These colored fault-lines are actually represented by a heavy presence of armed political organizations, numerous revisionists rewriting history, and millions of bigots.

According to my argument in this article, these fault-lines are dreams fueled by the rational calculation of the prospects of maximizing plot sizes per person on the ground.  Of course the larger the relative plot sizes, the more promising the alternative (splitting rather than staying). Like I said before, these aren’t imaginary ghosts. They are real and most of them carry arms and have been into it for years and they actually think the countdown to that day had started years ago. Two of them, Eritrea and South Sudan have already achieved the first stage of their goal and who knows what the next stage will be. If you look into the map of Eritrea with special focus on the deep blue color you will know what the first stage was.

The Eritrean revolution as you know officially started with the first trigger of Hamid Idris Awate in the Lowlands of Eritrea. Allow me to be as dumb as Qernelios Osman for a moment: No one really knows what Awate’s original idea was because he never lived long enough to tell his side of the story. I have no doubt he was the absolute hero of our struggle and our unifying symbol today. Personally, I have never heard of any public statement that he ever made or any position that he ever took on any relevant issue other than what we have been told. What are elaborately described in our history books are what the highly opinionated intellectuals around him thought or decided the goals were.

Even these descriptions weren’t constant throughout our history as you know and there was no consistency between words and deeds (i.e. declared and actual goals). We all wonder how, ten years after progress in achieving those goals, some people discovered that the ELF’s goal was very different from what they had thought it to be and opted for a split into a brand new organization called the EPLF. You can see the same realization in today’s Unionist Eritrean writers and politicians. While the politicians of the 1940s voted sensibly (according to fault-line politics motivated by the prospects of maximizing plot-sizes) in favor of union with Ethiopia, the new generation in the 1960s & 70s voted for the opposite goal. What independence unambiguously produced was a complete split of the western lowlands from Ethiopia together with partial independence in the highlands and Dankalia. Here “partial independence” essentially means a situation with a high degree of likelihood for revision to take care of unfinished business.

Map #3: Ghost States   

asalim3As you can see in Ethiopia, the Tigrai (I have included Amhara and anything in between in the classification) would have the smallest standard plot size in case of fragmentation. The Oromo look the second but this is probably because I have included everything that inhabits their region (and many are not Oromo) in the numbers. According to the formula (of rational fault-lines) the Somalis should have been the first to set on demolishing the union (and in fact they were among the first to try), the Afar should be the next to kick out.

In Eritrea the picture is identical. Plot sizes in the lowlands look smaller than they should be because (like the Oromo) I have included everything that inhabits the region in the numbers (I have also included all tiny ethnic groups into the classification). The formula again: the first to demolish the union should be the Afar followed by the Lowlands. Djibouti is too tiny to have a say on the region so I just took the liberty to split it almost into two between the Afar and Somalis. Somalia as you know is a mess. I left it as it is. In Sudan, however, you split the nation my formula does not seem to work as land is abundant everywhere. Although Darfur and Eastern Sudan do seem to have a marginally higher incentive to split, I doubt Northerners would try to keep them for their land. But we are not far from the truth as Darfur as you know is only a matter of time before it is gone. Eastern Sudan is no different than Somalia with more tribal complications within the region and too much politics.

If you take a broader view and think in terms of the whole region as a unit instead of taking the restrictive colonial boundaries of the various countries, we may factor-in the possibility of reinforcing identities and politics across borders. That would probably end up into a more connected ethno-region with at least eight Ghosts of the Horn of Africa. Please do not consider any of these maps, figures or words as a wish-list of things to do. I am terribly scared that this crazy scenario might happen but even to evade it we need to know what it is and its probabilities of coming true.

Map 4: The Future Horn

asalim4Having established my intention to do a great service to our national unity, imagine a situation whereby the Ghost states achieve political independence from one another. I am not promoting the idea that these eight independent states will be heaven or will have fewer problems than they do. There is credible evidence that each of them will turn into a nightmare. We already have Somalia and South Sudan and even Eritrea where people’s wish-lists have changed substantially. I definitely wish nothing had happened in Eritrea.

From your own experience with the Eritrean revolution I am sure you know that, that is not how things work. The strongest magic of revolution and its darkest secret is that you will never find out that you have been duped until you are actually duped. Would you have listened to anyone who would tell you that you would be worse off after Eritrea’s split from Ethiopia during the Eritrean revolution (1961 to 1991)? When did you start to listen and wish you had paid attention to people like Yosief Gebrehiwet and others like him? When did they themselves find out they were duped? After walking a million miles of thorns and landing on the hot spot?!

Now imagine someone telling these same people about the numbers in Table 5. The numbers are derived by collecting like terms from Table 4. Skip South Sudan because some guys have already done it before you. Skip Darfur because it is already under way and inches for the bitter truth to come out. Forget the Somalis who if it weren’t for geopolitics of the Cold War, would have done it decades ago. Let the PFDJ stay in power for a few more years and transnational Tigrai-Tigrigna is fully institutionalized. Give the Afar and the Beja some time to go transnational from an organizational point of view and you are done.

Conclusion

My hope is that we all become sensible enough to swim with the current rather than against it. Unfortunately, the trend as you can see is this: we had four countries less than a quarter of a century ago and now we have six full blown internationally recognized states. The rest of the colors are in progress and you either know what I am talking about or you are a member of one of those organizations that are doing what the EPLF and SPLA used to do and are marching towards what they are doing today. Personally, I have no doubt that is where things will eventually end up. Core of the Problem: where population density (relative plot size) becomes an incentive to fight tooth and nail to maintain the status quo is in what I have labeled as greater Tigrai. Sudan lacks this essential incentive and therefore the likelihood of viewing a split as a matter of life and death should be very marginal. Northern Sudanese may fight of course but they won’t have a problem to give up like they did in South Sudan.

We can mention four factors that may count as points of strength for this project: (1) it is more democratic than what we have as increasing one’s share of the country should (at least symbolically) increase one’s relative voting power (intensity) and can therefore be packaged marketed attractively; (2) the resultant map of the Horn of Africa would be composed of relatively more equal states in terms of size and the project should therefore offer a more attractive alternative of peaceful balance for a historically turbulent region; (3) transnational links created by shared concerns of refugees and dictatorships in an increasingly interdependent borders infested with insurgencies, smuggling (trafficking) routes and the rise of ethnic entrepreneurship is laying foundations for the necessary infrastructure; and (4) within the broader regional geopolitics the project coincides with the attempts of regional actors to transform the Red Sea into an “Arab-Islamic lake”.

Let us pray that nothing of the above actually takes place and let me see what you think as we will be visiting the maps in more details.
asalim5

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  • Ebtisam

    Ali

    I don’t think there are ‘ghosts’ but only ‘ghost riders’ who suffer from bad dreams. There is a very remote chance such ‘fragmentation’ would occur, but if god forbid such thing is to happen there is no doubt hat the loss of life and property would be an imaginable. You don’t need to trust me just look around & read widely, starting from Yogoslavia. Second. There is no guarantee anywhere in the world that speaking the same language or adhering to the same religion would lead to a lasting peace. Main reason is if we really want to find a difference we can find it even among our siblings. Third, the so-called new nation states are hardly so, perhaps with the exception of so called Afar & Somalia. If this is so then the question would be why do we think the new multi-national states such as ‘Oromia’ or the so-called Tigri-Tigrign. By the way, the fact that shows how much you were in bad dream was to create a Tigri-Tigrign state out of the mainly Amhara land. To achieve this ‘bad dream’ the new state need to have a leader more cruel than Hitler & well equipped than the most powerful state in the world world. Why I am saying is because the new ‘leader’ had to exterminate the over 20 million Amhara, a number almost three times number of Jews killed by Hitlor. The bottom line is you are having a serious bad dream & you would be better of if you visit a psychotherapist before it is to late for you.

    • Arha

      Ebtisam

      Wishful thinking is not going to get you anywhere! Ali is just interpreting the reality on the ground and the possible consequences the the inhumane treatments, exclusions, injustices excercises by tribalists, supremacists, religious in the region. Ali is not promoting it but giving you and me and those elected or otherwise an EARLY WARNING. The question is what alternative have you got? through he white towel approch! live with no dignity?

  • http://awate.com alula

    people trying to escape the reality or accept who you are.
    one nigeia other day he said trying to escape from british colony he said i am first he called himself iroba tribe.then africa,even not nigeria,cos he doesnt want the colony staf to forget my brother thats history you can not cancel it.but what real today on the ground today.

    you eritreans we know you bad historical event just accept it and chose the right direction whats better for new generation.

    if you loose ground dont expect ethiopia gone fragement .you better accept your ethiopiawinet just swallow it dry you dont need water just like that
    let the new generation enjoy if you can.

    or just stay away from ethiopian internal affair.
    ethiopia is in the hand of GOD .we getting better and better.

  • Mebratu

    As an Amhara myself I wasn’t offended though, because you are one of the few people to understand the fact that Amhara is not an ethnicity. Amhara has never been an ethnic group until the DERG came. Historically Amhara is anyone in the ruling class of Ethiopia’s traditional feudal state. For example you could be born in North Shewa and be a Christian Orthodox have all the traits of what’s presently known as Amhara but if you weren’t somehow connected to the ruling landed gentry you were a serf and not an Amhara. You could be born a pure Tegaru but if you were a member of this landed feudal lordship then you were considered an Amhara. In a way Amhara was a class distinction that became an ethnicity in recent years. So I believe we need to analyze our history before we generalize things like you did here. Here is the most important point I like to make. Ethnicity and religion can never epitomize all the intricate nuances that define modern people’s of the Horn of Africa. This obsession of ethnic boundaries is a fruitless attempt at cheap politics. What we truly need and i believe desire is to work on industrialization and fast economic growth accompanied by adequate accommodation of all groups and people’s. This will bring us all out of the terrible jostling for resources based on ethnic lines. If we industrialize like the modern states then ethnicity and religion will seize to become major markers of political capital. That’s what our goal should be instead of imagining these fiefdoms as you just did.

  • Mebratu

    Why are Eritrean Elites so fascinated by the idea of fragmentation of the Horn region. Many of these people seem to be willing and wishing for this to happen as if there is something it it for themselves. Also I didn’t see a single mention of the Amhara who happen to be the second most populous group in Ethiopia.

  • Kim Hanna

    Dear Ali Salim,

    I had a similar dream like yours.In my dream Ethiopia was at the center. I zoomed out to have Lybia and Iraq into focus. What do I see? I see nations that were setting fires in our place are now on fire themselves. God said in his booming voice “Don’t mess with Ethiopia”. I woke up.

    KH

  • Tamrat Tamrat

    Dear Ali Salim! If I ignore Your affiliation or subjectiveness because each Group has had its own great revolution and revolutionaries then what you have dipicted in Your superb analysis is far from gohst and/ but it is a reality. The Shorter time we use to come to the reality the fewer human suffering and loss of lives.

    The colonizers (stopp this nonsense that Ethiopia colonized Eritrea) or the west have used this Dynamics of horn of africa to their advantage blessed With our dictator leaders and in part we also to some extent playing some part. (imagine Isayas liberating Oromo People) For the west it doesnt matter how many People we sacrificed for to over throwing any dictator government who is on thire way in their so calle interest. And that is why all our vicotries the ethiopian revolution 1974, the ethiopian eritrean revolution in 1991 have turned its ugly turn than what the majority entended to. No gambella citizen sacrificed in derg time so that woyane dictators to sell his children land for Indian land grabbers or no affar sacrificed so that his children divided in to countries eri-afar and ethio-afar and separated by more than 2oo, ooo strong havily armed soldiers. Note that if we have democratic government then at least we wont be used by the western or the Arabs against our interest. Instead we use our strength to protect our interest as the other civilized world does.

    So right now it doesnt matter where the lines are drawn or how the different Groups are rearenged but the government/s which at least do not inhibit the free movment of the horn Peoples or People and activly encourage in developing ecah region survive longer and bring a peacfull transition where horn People live in Peace and harmoney. South sudan and Ethiopia; Somalia, Kenya, Dejibotit and Ethiopia, Eritrea and Ethiopia must allow their border People to have at least a normal flow of People over their border. The border soldiers must be replaced by police men. We are the poorest of the poors so why not be the kindest and gentle poormen then. What do we loose if our People move and meet their own.

    • haile

      Tamrat,

      “We are the poorest of the poors so why not be the kindest and gentle poormen then.” If by we, you mean the honest people of Ethiopia and Eritrea, then they ARE kind and gentle beyond belief. Forget army, forget even police, they don’t need anything more than a mere poles erected on the ground to simply tell them which way is Eritrea and which way is Ethiopia, the rest is history. They have always have been kind and gentle to each other and it would be life as usual. Unfortunately, the Ethiopian government (the TPLF faction) has been the party that is adamant that erecting these posts and forgetting about the border is a matter of life and death to – “Durable peace”! Demarcation is just a big word for something so simple, yet will allow the peoples of the horn to move on.

      • haile

        …cntd

        I had to go and find this excerpts from a letter frpm Ex-PM Meles Zenawi to the UN, dated September 19, 2003:

        ” Badme, having been the first Ethiopian village to be occupied by Eritrea at the start of the Eritrean aggression, is the casus belli for the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Obviously, it does not require great wisdom to see how symbolically important the village is for the people of Ethiopia who have paid so much in blood to reverse the Eritrean Aggression and liberate Ethiopian lands, including Badme. It is unimaginable for the Ethiopian people to accept such a blatant miscarriage of justice. The decision is thus a recipe for continued instability, and even recurring wars.”

        I doubt that placing a cheap poles here and there would be “a recipe for continued instability, and even recurring wars.”

      • Tamrat Tamrat

        Haile! You still are occupied With the lines than the People. First understand What Mr Ali tries to convey and then try to understand the line you are occupied from the afars, kunamas, somalis etc point of view.

  • Robel

    Also….could not skip noticing why the author chose to lump together the Amharas with Tigray? If population sizes are his main premises for his argument, then wouldn’t calling what he calls ‘Tigray’ ‘Amhara’ make more sense. The last time I checked, the Amharas constituted 27.0% while the Tirgayans constituted 6.08% of the Ethiopian population. Does it show the author’s ulterior motive in writing such blatantly crazy article from a hatred to some ethnic groups and would LOVE to see them disappear from the face of the earth if possible ????? Just saying !

    • http://awate.com alex_deana

      well said, I actually didn’t notice that…but it shows if these so called Tigrigna people had the aptitude and the power to mislead the Tigrians, they wouldn’t hesitate from exterminating other ethnic groups around them in order to fulfill their sick and evidently disastrous dream of being superior..

  • Robel

    This analysis fits very well with the saying “Dihrey Saeri aytbkola”. How about we focus on what’s happening in Eritrea rather than trying hard to prove that what we did in the past 50 years of so is a worthwhile cause. Admitting your mistakes and moving on takes courage…so I strongly advice the author to just stop this madness and focus on building what we already have, rather than spreading this nonsense and destructive ideas.

  • Tazabi

    Before analyse others know your self and identity. Do not dream to breake up the rest of horn which will not be real . The world is getting together and united.

    • http://no Ahmed Omer

      Except so called the third world

  • jonah

    I am not sure what to make of this except maybe it is throwback to the past. Would all this discussion be happening if Eritrea was stable state with healthy governance and a bright future? That Eritrea is not success story after independence is bad but nothing unique within the african story. Most African countries after independence went thru some dark periods but some have been able to recover and be success like Ghana or Angola. They didn’t start questioning their existence? They just were able to get good government that was able to give the people what they needed. please see the clips..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mJNsKb4txg

    Why are we talking about ethnic-based countries in 2013? We have 40+ african countries whose borders and nationality is a by product of colonialism. The only country in Africa that we can say that has homogeneous/one ethnic or a nation-state is Somalia. As you can see, it is a disaster but yet somehow or some way, we are going to see greater afar, tigrai?

    Ali, I just think you might out of touch with what is happening in world. Most of the proponent of things are getting older in their 50s or 60s. For example, the median age in Ethiopia is 16 years old. That means a significant part of population only knows about Meles leadership and economic progress that is happening Ethiopia- they are not forming armies or parties or stuck in some mountains dreaming how their issues or problems can only be resolved if their ethnic group has country? No they can vote.

    But to top it all, I just don’t see any driving force to these ethnic based countries?
    We have some countries with bad governance but nothing more.. and I think most people in their irrespective will find a solution or the bad leaders will die out. I can see the situation that Eritrean youth and people will be saying never again with regard to leaders like issias and one party systems.. and find their way. I don’t think they are going to be thinking about ethnic based countries..
    I believe they will be looking into books like.
    http://whynationsfail.com/summary/

  • Henok

    Aboy teRaRay atum Aboy teRaRay. lol

  • Alash

    It is very hard to find a Muslim Eritrean that wants to see other parts of lowland Muslim Eritrea secede and become part of Ethiopia. I don’t believe the author is Ali Salim. This smells like YG.

    • T..T.

      Alash, let me help here. The only person with Ali Salim name that I know is Isayas’s political commissioner in the Assab area. Is there a relationship or the same person? I am not sure, but Ali Salim of Awate.com sounds like a political commissioner too if not the same person. Also, Ali Salim of Awate.com doesn’t appear to have hidden agenda but burning agenda to burn Isayas alive.

  • wed garza

    Yes, Salim has many points to heed. Because there is nothing constant forever, families, societies, countries continously divide and multiply. Thus the options he staged are not utopia itself; it’s a parcel of human nature, therefore we need to learn the dynamics of human nature looking for: peace, honour, dignity and above all justice.
    Salim pointed a scinario where he stressed the impossible can be one day possible had we failed to heed one anothers concerns and worries.
    If the line drows towards the south why not towards the west and east, though!It doesn’t make sense!!!!
    Nowadays every society knows what’s best for themselves, interests, aims and dreams. thanks to IT-technology. the world is a village. Yes, many would unite and would also separate too, because liberty and justice is above the terms quoted.

    • MEHRETU HABTE aka Yugoslavo Eritrean

      Dear Wedgarza,

      Excellent observation..We would be wise to look at all scenarios..I used to think the Ethnic administration had a sinister motive..but ,as time went ,I found not that it works ,but also is necessary..specially to minorities like Afar & Kunama….as people want concerns only that has to do with national interest..such minorities get crushed while the majority does not concern with their local issues.
      I have no problem if horn of Africa creates a tribal system with a loose federal system…thus people would cooperate out of necessity or wish rather than a fake countries shoved to their throat..It could be3 done amicably or through …destructive means.
      Unfortunately we have people who think if A.I.D.s was mentioned as a title for discussion..they think people would be infected by it..just by discussing it… ironically, they live in the first world.

  • WEDIERE

    Ok Ali Salim with a box of crayon and a piece of paper bares his Freudian Id for all to see: the establishment of the Great Nation of METAHT carefully packaged in all that maze of words. Dreaming is cheap all one has to do is go to sleep. Alas, Ali probably spent at least a few hours to come up with this monstrosity to virtually chop the Horn into tribal enclaves. Congratulation Ali! What will be your next hallucination– how to instigate tribal wars among the eight states he foolishly proposed?

  • Araya

    Is Ali Salim is YG? I mean only job-less YG can write that Bela-Belew crap? What is wrong with you Ali? Come-on, bring the burning issue to the front and expose the hypocrites like you have done before. Leave this kind of crap to the likes of YG.
    You owe me for the advice I have provided you. I normally get paid gainfully but that what brothers for.

  • MEHRETU HABTE aka Yugoslavo Eritrean

    Fellow Eritreans & friends of Eritreans,

    While my english is not the sexiest in the forum ,my analysis is extremely brilliant
    .This is my fear..that..we Eritreans might be looking at the smaller picture, disregarding the big global picture..I am not sure the new world order ..like it´s cousin the west in the 1950s & 60 s wants to see a viable Eritrean entity.Could there be a co-ordinated effort to frustrate the Eritrean issue & drive people towards Ethiopianism through extremely cunning plan ???
    Let me put my bipolaric sparsed ideas & you would connect them.

    1)Like the genocide in Christian and traditionalist non – moslem southern Sudan..former president GEORGE W. BUSH´s christian right wing of the republican party ,pressured the president to protect the Christian southern Sudan & with a stroke of a pen, President Bush did it..so, the genocide was restricted to darfur black moslems (I guess)
    Now ,President Obama could stop the action with a single sentence to what is happenning in Sinai towards Eritreans. The media could have given it more attention..more henious crimes are happenning there than in Palestine or even Afghanistan.This affects the Eritrean wishy washy national stand.Why not even mention it in a congressional setting ???
    2)EPLF/PFDJ ..while giving immunity to Demhit & Kinijit to do whatever they like ..including rape of civilian women…is running out Eritrean youth to Ethiopia..were they are getting food ,shelter,peace of mind ,respect, education …eventually these young students are staying in Ethiopia ,earnning decent wages & stability..while Eritrea is on purpose becoming a land of Chegwar dangas…..Rich Eritreans that were deported to Eritrea could go back & claim their riches & property…well given the chance..they will not even want to see the map of Eritrea, let alone ..go back to it.
    3)Those who managed to cross Sinai after torture & rape will stay in the west & Arab countries while Demhit & Kinijit are intermarrying with Eritrean women..the kids will grow up with United Ethiopia mentality.(I am not complainning)
    3) People are starved on purpose..missing the good old days of Ethiopian ¨colonization¨…& Ethiopia will get to use the ports through Qatar leasing the ports.It has already been in play (my own guess )..although Qatar leasing ports is public knowledge.This will bring Ethiopia close to 2nd world.
    4)Eritrean lands occupied by Ethiopian forces are witnessing a great deal of freedom to move & gather..food is a plenty..& the ethnic administration (which I support)is being promoted.Who will want miserable Eritrea ???Apart from those of us in diaspora ,so that we could boast to Tigrawot taxi drivers like us.
    5) Eritrean opposition parties & forces are being infiltrated by PFDJ & I suspect Washington funding ..& inflamatory topics are being raised on purpose & dividing the opposition.Ethiopia will not allow gennuine force to make offensive vfrom it´s land ..not yet anyways.
    People I do not want to bore you with my brilliant ..out of the box thinking..but ,We maybe back to square one..because..I do not think even the super powers be it China or America & Europe want suspicious entity in the still stragetic red sea area.
    Well connect the dots & buy black dresses & ties …or …I maybe having effect of the psycho tropic medication effect…but Amharas in Edmonton said..ከተማረው ኤርትራዊ ያበደው ይሻላል እንበል ?? I guess it was meant to complement me ???

    Hawkum M. Habte aka Yugoslavo – Eritrean

    • TiETiE( Shiro bubble)

      Ezi Yugoslavo – entay MaletKa EYu.Kazi Kulu LkMkAM AsmaT Hade AymHaSHeKaN nHna Dma MtReDaAna.

      • MEHRETU HABTE aka Yugoslavo Eritrean

        Tietie Shiro ,

        PFDJ´s name is also for democracy & Justice…name does not mean much in fantasy filled fake Eritrea. Just comment on the issue .How many gebreyesus´s are in prison for rape & robbery …yet the name says..Servant of Jesus.
        Please comment on my comment thanks.

        Hawka

      • TiETiE( Shiro bubble)

        I was joking though your comments are always lovely. especially when you mix Eng and Tig they are informative.

      • YUGOSLAVO ERITREAN aka M. Habte

        Thanks Tietie ,

        I should have caught that…well..even brilliant people err I guess,
        thank you Tietie

    • haile

      bipi nebsi (as in bipolarious)

      No need for all that, the IA group is demented. That is all, no other reason, I for one believe on the Eritrean people (the real ones :-) those in eri). If you only visited there, you would be able to see how a STRONG and GIFTED people are being USED by every one who uses their banner just to abuse them like all the others. Eritreans lost their government in 2001 following the ethio-eritrea border war. A dominant war lord has been in charge ever since.
      regards

      • YUGOSLAVO ERITREAN aka MEHRETU HABTE

        Haile Nebsi,

        I believe Eritreans 40 years & younger are brilliant & very bright ..they remind me of me…,
        Brother Haile ..It is good to imagine the worst, while hoping for the best.When one has true love ,,,like a mother who sends her son to dukwan to bring some shikor…if he is late 3 minutes..the mother thinks maybe he was hit by a car or abducted..not because she wishes that..but ,it is a possible scenario..that could tragically happen.Because of that possibility next time she will accompany him or give him a strict instruction. I just want us to see all possibilities & motivate us to save our people.
        Hawka Bipolaric brilliance

  • Kokhob Selam

    Dearest Mr. Ali Salem “ሕንቅል ሕንቅሊተይ” is in Jebena (Merhaba). most probably you are the one who should answer the ሕንቅል ሕንቅሊተይ. try, who knows you may get gift from Merhaba, Jebena.

  • MEHRETU HABTE aka Yugoslavo Eritrean

    Dear gg,

    Maybe I am naive ,definetely not politically correct,….I mean,………..I can not see what the west & now the global order sees in Eritrea…even some Eritreans & Ethiopians think moslems having equal power with their christian counterparts, in Eritrea…would bring the worst in Eritrea. Actually ,a good number of Eritrean Kebesians (hizbe Tigrinya)..may not say it loudly…but have a great concern of the possible scenario.I have not sensed that in my layman´s observation.
    On the other hand ,if I were an Afar ,I would like to be with my Afar brothers that are doing superb..in Ethiopia, than miserable Eritrea.In my insignificant connection with few Eritrean Afars ,I have sensed that their Afar identity & brotherhood with their fellow Afars anywhere is more important to them..that I respect.In any case Eritrea is becoming a failed state were the citzinery (atleast in the diaspora)seems to have regreted a lot of things ,but only says it to friends.

    • gg

      Dear Meheretu,

      In case of Ethiopia I do not know a party based on religion affilation. I will not be concerned that relighion or tribal issue will cause termoil in Ethiopia. I am for a party which fight for both Muslim and none muslim equality and freedom. I have no problem with my Muslim brothers.But if I were a christian Oromo in Oromia (separated from Ethiopa), I would be scared to death that sheria law will, probably, be imposed on me. It seems there are some relgion affilated parties in case of Eritrea .None Muslim Oromo resides mainly in Borona, Wellega and parts of Shewa. Arsi , Bale , Harerge, Illubabor, Jima are mainly inhabited by Muslim Oromo. The proportion of Muslim in Eritrea is higher than in Ethiopia. So I will be equally scared if religion affilated party is in power, if i were Eritrean. Why I would be scared to death ? Because of what is being happning in Egypt, and middle east against christian. Because of what happened in Jimma and other parts Ethiopia against Christians. No offence, there is this saying which goes “yemuslim hageru haymanotu new”. The Egyptian cleric who was invited in one of Ethiopian muslim meeeting in US recently has said the same, ” Muslim are the same; there is no ethiopian muslim Egyptian Muslim…” African history is full of revenge. There are so many who do not hesitate to do what his/her tribal or religuos leader tell him/her to do. So I agree with the the last map, it is wise move for Eritrean highlanders to join Ethiopia. As you said Eritrean Afar will do fine if they join Ethiopian Afar. And the current objective condition in Ethipia will not force Afars to separate themsleves from Ethiopia. In general I believe that Muslim and none Muslim can live in peace in Eritrean or Ethiopia if there is no religion affilated party and the number of Muslum is not much higher than the none Muslim.

      • MEHRETU HABTE aka Yugoslavo Eritrean

        Dear gg,
        I have written how political Islam scares me to death, specially as practised by Arabs…I am not scared of Jewish or Hindu or buddhist religions..as their god does not tell them to massacre blasphemous or non muslim…Saying that and not forgetting the 1940s – 50s in Eritrean parties …I really have not seen Eritrean moslems giving hint of the behaviour I see basically all over the muslim world.Actually that was what I thought about Ethiopian moslems before….It is just the experience in Eritrea has been moslems being slaughtered by Christian extremesties..their land being robbed ,by design prohibited from coming back from refugee life in the Sudan to their god given land.
        GG ,I am being honest with myself..If I had sensed such behaviour from Eritrean moslems ,I would be the first one to advocate for Tigray – Tigrinyi or Tigray Amhirinyi…because to me love of people is number one . I resent the Eritrean nation that keeps on drinking Eritrean blood …but ,I am following my people´s wish..eventhough..I DO NOT BELIEVE ERITREA WILL BE A VIABLE COUNTRY .LOTS OF WOUNDS ,COVERED WITH WOUNDS.

        Hawka/Wendimh

  • Alash Abelnayom

    By the way, the international boundary between Eritrea and Ethiopia is still soaked in blood.

  • Habtegiorgis Abraha

    Dear All,

    I hope the moderator will allow me, as of my appreciation, to just copy and paste, the following,

    from Ghezae Hagos: ” … But dear Haile, there is another way to see it. Given our intrinsic and acquired pitfalls, we might not be able to save Eritrea from Issayas’ jaws. So, how about getting engaged, huddling together in even to the extent of your characterization above, ‘….’ before history’s final verdict is passed on our nation. Singing lamentations to our eventual demise, we ‘die’ with the word Eritrea emitted with our last breath. As in the Norse mythological saga, we may give the ‘enemy’ victory but not honor; we may have been defeated, but lost beautifully and magnificently………”

    Cheers!

    • Ghezae Hagos

      Thanks dear Habtegiorgis Abraha. Written in haste; could be edited and refined. But the point is there…I guess.

  • Mickielle

    Ali Salim,

    As far as Sudan is concerned, you are stating the obvious. Beshir is basically forced to oversea and negotiate a partition of his country. Eritrea and Ethiopia are not in the league.

  • sara

    i think this article is dedicated in memory of ato meles zenawi(rip) the “great visionary” leader of ethiobia.

    • Alash

      sara:

      Ha ha! You mean the “Great Kedami of Etobia.” The man who panhandled and begged in every Western Capital.

      He was really good at “shaking the cup” allright,

      • Kokhob Selam

        Dear friends Alash and sara,

        the man has done what ever he can why don’t you leave him in peace and talk about the alive (if living is breathing) one of your’s.

        within his short life he has done the job that can’t be accomplished by your master for next thousand years.

      • http://awate Amanuel Hidrat

        Dear Kokhob,

        Yes how true it is!!! Tell them to go and see it on the ground and make their mind by seeing themselves….avoiding second and third hand info is paramount as far as there is an open door to see it. If there is a chance to avoid second and third hand info, do it for it helps you to come to a plausible judgement.In Eritrean politics even gossips is plausible info to disseminate.

      • Zegeremo

        Mubarak was a puppet and did lots of good things for his country, Egypt. But the question is where is Egypt now?

      • Tazabi

        The least you would have thanked him for separate Eritrea as you dreamed. He begged from west or not he has done a lot for his country Ethiopia. The rest remain for you and Isayas to do one out of hundred to do for Eritrea rather to desroy.

    • Yodita

      Sara and Alash

      Archtypes of PFDJ. Hasadat!

      • Kokhob Selam

        Dearest Amanuel,

        that is true “seeing is ..” enjoy also …..ከመይ ….. ዘይናፈቕ?…. of march 25th in Jebena.thank you

  • Mickielle

    Ali Salim!

    Sometimes I have the habit of just reading the article without bothering to know who wrote it. Somewhere down in reading the article, I asked myself who from Awate writers could come up with this piece of nonsense. Ali Salim was the last in my mind.

    How about another scenario, a more plausible one than your take. The big elephant sitting in the middle of the room. We have in the midst of the horn of Africa a country with 80 million who from a perenial mass starvation is fast moving into a steel mills, satelite technology based quasi industrial and technologial powerhouse that could literally gobble up everyone else in the hood – not militarily although they would have the power to do so too, but economically, politically, and culturally
    (mind you we are also talking about the 30 million moslems who are fast becoming self assertive). You are obsessed with religious/ethnic cleavages in Eritrea and the others in the hood. From what I can see, there is a silverlining in Issayas mass enlsavement of the Eritrean youth – an unintended one – he has created the most homogeneous group of Eritrean generation we ever had. The reason – sawa and the agelglot has created comraderie and a common shared destiny that cross between ethnic and religious lines.

  • MEHRETU HABTE

    If I were a non “hizbe Tigrinya”..(I would really see it suspiciously )..the so called hatred of Hizbe Tigrinya..towards Tigrawot of Tigray…I mean ,Why this inflated mannerism of hatred, by hizbe tigrina ???….Could it be regarded in a form of An ex-wife who regrets of divorcing her ex husband and manifests her hidden love through extreme resentment ,that borders hatred..whereas in reality..if the spouse were to unfold her emotions she misses her ex husband & regrets to have been dupped by emotional situations.
    I am Hizbe Tigrinya ..that I know Tegaru are my brothers & Eritreans my country men…I do not care much for Eritrea..but love my fellow Eritreans..and I do not have to search my soul…the people are not going anywhere..even if Dimbezan becomes a nation of Tigrai-Tigrinyi…,I will always go to Keren to buy goats or fruits..& Tigres & Bilens & others will always be my people & neighbours. I even support giving Metahit people getting Tigrai Tigrinyi Green card or free Visa.
    We do not accept back the people in Geza wereqet (Dumegnales)..Hizbe Tigrinya ones sold are not refundable..Sorry Bilens you are stuck with my uncles in Geza wereqet…hhh

    Maps do not change relations between people. I HOPE PEACE WILL COME IN ANY WORKABLE WAY.

  • http://awate.com alex_deana

    This takes me back to 1993 when I was a lot less politically conscious and I remember sitting next to a wise old man watching the late PM melse Zeanawi making a farewell speech to excited cheerful Eritreans in what looked like happy ever after future ahead..The old man specifically referring to the so called Tigrigna mumbled, “30 አመት ሙሉ የቆፈሩትን መቃብር እየመረቀላቸው እንደሆነ ባወቁት.”. I have to be honest, I really didn’t understand what he really meant, nor did I see any reason why people who shared the same culture and language would have a problem maintaining shared interest. In fact i disregarded the oldman’s remark so much that it only rang in my head in and around 1998 for obvious reason..”አይምሰልህ” said the man “አሁን የጋራ ጠላት ብለዉ የሚያስቡት ዘር ስላለ ነዉ. የጋራ ጠላት የተባለዉ ዘር ጠላት አለሞሆኑ ሲታወቅ ግን መተያየትና መፈታተሽ ይጀምራሉ”..what is interesting here is, this is not from a political analyst or some sort of regional expert, but a common man with common sense..he even went farther explaining how conflict of identity is a direct rout to conflict of interest “ትግራዩም ኢትዮጵያዊነቱን, እነዛም ኤርትራዊነታቸዉን መምረጣቸዉ የማይቀር ነዉ”. needless to say the rest..now, we can blame whoever we want, be it the white colonialist, be it haileselasie, be it Meles-Isaias, or even God, a pattern has been created perhaps with some truth in what this writer has explained at least as far as what has so far happened and regardless of what might happen in the future. The only irony here is the advocacy for worst case scenario often seems to come from the worst affected deniers, the Eritreans as though to say የማን ቤት ፈርሶ የማን ሊበጂ የአዉሬ መፈንጫ ይሆናል እንጂ…it is an illness really!

    • Alash Abelnayom

      The problem with Meles was that he was a KEDAMI. He was a servant.

      • Robel

        Gezagka Atsiry barya nay isayas kab mikuan “kedami” nay America mihashe kedai!

      • http://awate.com alex_deana

        If empty rhetoric, denial, boastfulness, stubbornness, and arrogance were all bricks and mortar, Eritrea would have been a land of skyscrapers. you guys have it all!…Meles might have begged but at least put back some thing on his people and the last people I would expect to criticize him are beggars of all beggars who give nothing but robe their people off everything….begging for people and country is certainly better than begging for Alshebab..

      • Bahram

        If you really understood the word “kedami” what does it mean that you would not have used it as a curse. Kedami means worker or sheqalay. To called sheqalay is a blessing, every body has to be proud of it.

  • Nehba

    لقد اسمعت لو ناديت حيا، ولكن لا حياة لمن تنادي

  • Dag

    Hi Ali,
    What about the reverse argument, populations implosion leading to land grab and hence to a creation of a union of small nations. Would not that be a rational argument, if Ethiopia swallows up South Sudan and Eritrea. After all this was how Ethiopia came into being and many other nations too.

  • MEHRETU HABTE aka Yugoslavo Eritrean

    [Moderator:please don't bring unrelated stuff here.]

    • MEHRETU HABTE aka Yugoslavo Eritrean

      Accepted ,old habits die hard.
      Sorry

  • Teclesenbet

    Dear Ali Salim!

    Reality has lots of dimensions, levels, layers or phenomenon to it. I really don’t see any point in your efforts and thus wonder why you overstress yourself “googlling” statistics and mapping scenarios, while admitting even yourself that things don’t work that way in real life. As simplistic and as irrational as it is, your scenario looks plausible at the outset, however the truth is, societies or state formations are much more complex unlike your land apportioning.
    Some of your former articles use to amuse people from the debate viewpoint. Now that you started agitating and mapping division scenarios, you have become rather destructive.
    Rember the Tigriyna adage that goes, “meriet ‘inte tigmeTel’si ku’enti mtsegebna belet hibay መሬት እንተ ትግምጠል’ሲ ኵዕንቲ ምጸገብና በለት ህበይ.“ Little did the monkey know, under that scenario, she will also no longer be alive! Poor hibay 

    Cheers!

  • Kokhob Selam

    Dear Mr. Ali,
    although I among people who want to see united world (as one nation) where nations or states appear just for administration, I don’t have problem on all what you wrote. may be it is only listening to each other that will let us think the posetive way. the only thing we should agree at this very moment is that we people want to live in peace and harmony.let everybody say what he thinks is good for our future.

    After all what is nation? we need first to understand that is just artificial (man made). there is nothing on that unless it service for peace and dignity. people keep in dividing and uniting, when they do so they forget to put into consideration if that will serve for all. instead of doing it in bloody way it is good you put it that way in maps and see if it serve us all. if Haileslase do it the way you do it during uniting by force Eritrea and Ethiopia, and put it to the people to discuss we could have saved lot of souls and time by furnishing that will not work.

    as for me I totally disagree for more than thousand reasons which can be summarized only on two cases.

    01. The world development of all sectors force us to be united than to be separated. see how fast technologies cover the world making it impossible to control a nation as nation by the governments. for example information technology.
    02. we in horn has gone through tough times and we know we can do better by making a kind of united states. example Eritrea and Ethiopia. while keeping nations as nations we should have almost one country all over horn.

    thank you for reading my comment.

  • haile

    Awatistas,

    The problem here appears to be one of ‘indulgence’. On my way home, few days ago, I decided to stop by a friend who is also working on restoring a 1964 classic car (don’t ask much, I am not into them classic cars, sooo don’t wish to get into specifics!). So, last time I stopped by his home garage/ work station for a coffee, he showed me the progress he made since I was there last and that he is planning to drive it off this summer (hopping all goes well!). Surprised by the complexity of the task he was managing, I asked him how he sources his information to proceed with certain tasks. Well, he told me that there is a cool forum he posts questions on, and other people with similar interests and know how on the matter post back a reply.

    Well, well, well… what can you say about this then? When you see that beautiful thing zooming past you, come this summer, you can marvel at the use of technology to bring similar minded and skilled people around a common task for a common purpose.

    What we see in the Eritrean cyber politics is that its mere usage is venting emotion, indulgence in laziness, useless commotion, shallow discussion, empty rhetoric, aimless narration, fruitless discourses, disconnected realities, disfranchised mentality, ill-aligned vision, blind shooting targets, purposeless substances, unrestrained conscience, devoid moral judgement, vanity vices, frivolous concerns, twisted imaginations, hardened feelings, lost causes, damaged thought processes….

    In short, non-viable ventures!

    Regards

    • Yodita

      Dear Haile,

      It is all the things you say, but surely you could have mentioned a thing or two on the positive side! Agreed, all summed up, it is negative but surely there must be something (albeit very scarce) positive about it. To mention but one side dish, reading all the stuff day in and day out by Hgdef and supporters signals to them that their tomorrows are rather bleak. It may be taking its time, but something like a tornado (becoming a tsunami) is in the brewing: contempt and intolerance! It is not only the Eritrean people who live in fear at the present time, but fear has also visited them because of these “…non-viable ventures”.

      Just a couple of years ago, most cyber warriors were on a nick but more and more are now using real names and sending their pics. Just a couple of years ago, hardly any protests took place, in the past months there’s a lot more going on and it is the embassy staff that wants to hide behind windows. It is inevitable, it is gathering momentum. Your own transformation in Awate.com is a case in point. I consider it a milestone, a qualitative change.

      • haile

        Dear Yodita,

        It is commendable that you see the positive charges (sparks) jumping of the live circuit, albeit just random sparks. It has been almost a decade and a half (almost as long as TPLF spent in a struggle!) since the cyber politics has been in “full swing”, in attendance happen to be many with fertile minds and great skills. What has been achieved has been reduced to an embarrassing tendency of holding poor commenter responsible for not coming up with a magic wand to chase the stray cat.

        Regards

    • Salyounis

      Haile:

      I think you may have written one of my favorite rants in a long time. What makes it powerful is that it is understated: no caps, no exclamation points:

      What we see in the Eritrean cyber politics is that its mere usage is venting emotion, indulgence in laziness, useless commotion, shallow discussion, empty rhetoric, aimless narration, fruitless discourses, disconnected realities, disfranchised mentality, ill-aligned vision, blind shooting targets, purposeless substances, unrestrained conscience, devoid moral judgement, vanity vices, frivolous concerns, twisted imaginations, hardened feelings, lost causes, damaged thought processes….

      saay

      • haile

        Saay,

        it is all public domain… can be re-twitted at will..:)

        Thanks

    • Alash Abelnayom

      haile:

      Speaking of cars, that is why the opposition is just spinning their wheels.

      Just spinning their wheels! Going nowhere.

      • Saleh Gadi

        If we agree the “opposition” is spinning its wheels, we must agree it is doing so on an empty street. Harmless.
        What would you say of those who are spinning their wheels over the skulls of Eritreans while other bystanders (if not cheer leaders) are enjoying the show? Please spare us the pontification.
        I suggest anyone who has the urge to pontificate must either 1)join the struggle (maybe create their own if they don’t like what is available), 2) declare their support of injustice openly, without playing hide-and-seek or 3) get the hell out of the game. If anyone thinks the political struggle is a boy scout hike, they must drink a cup of comamile and go back to sleep.

    • Saleh Gadi

      Haile, you wrote: “What we see in the Eritrean cyber politics is that its mere usage is venting emotion, indulgence in laziness, useless commotion, shallow discussion, empty rhetoric, aimless narration, fruitless discourses, disconnected realities, disfranchised mentality, ill-aligned vision, blind shooting targets, purposeless substances, unrestrained conscience, devoid moral judgement, vanity vices, frivolous concerns, twisted imaginations, hardened feelings, lost causes, damaged thought processes….”

      Now after categorizing the cyber politics (which is an extension of the non-cyber politics by the way) into caompartments that I can imagine (and cannot imagine) you left me with one impressions: wouldn’t you agree your comment is on the “indulgence in laziness” category? Where is your rebuttal, counter argument or even demolishing the idea? That my friend makes cyber politics what many have made it to be.

      • haile

        Sal..haha nice one:-)

        But seriously, what would be the point of doing so if it is only going to start another “useless commotion?”

        I Think it is time we think that who is in a position to tweak the way the cyber-politics is currently set up, so that the nature of the “defaults” force the quality of the”process.”

        Regards

        • Saleh Gadi

          Nice one…but you are wrongly thinking you avoided “useless commotion” when actually you have already created one:-)

      • Alash

        Dear Saleh:

        Seriously though. This is partly on you and SAAY. You failed to exercise sound editorial judgement when you let an article such as this where the author let his imagination run wild playing with the map of the Horn appear on your website.

        Breaking up nations in the Horn and drawing hypothetical international boundaries may sound like a fun academic exercise for someone who has too much time on his hands but it is not something that the Horn people take lightly. Too much blood has been shed over those international boundaries. Redrawing maps would be a recipe for permanent war.

      • yegermal

        It’s simple. Haile has become my disciple and can no longer stand the idea of dissecting arguments to make a convoluted counter-argument. And to me this is progress and invariably leads to honest talk….

        • Saleh Gadi

          Excellent. Commendable achievement. Now I have to beat his record of twenty compartments–unfortunately I misplaced my hardcover dictionary once owned by a man goaled insane trying to memorize it. I do not like the Internet version; it doesn’t feel authentic. Let’s pray for honesty to rain from the sky this summer. Ameeeeeen.:-)

      • Ghezae Hagos

        Haile,

        Sal Y. beat me to it but I can’t help it: as rants and venting go, this one takes the cake.

        “What we see in the Eritrean cyber politics is that its mere usage is venting emotion, indulgence in laziness, useless commotion, shallow discussion, empty rhetoric, aimless narration, fruitless discourses, disconnected realities, disfranchised mentality, ill-aligned vision, blind shooting targets, purposeless substances, unrestrained conscience, devoid moral judgement, vanity vices, frivolous concerns, twisted imaginations, hardened feelings, lost causes, damaged thought processes….

        In short, non-viable ventures!”

        But dear Haile, there is another way to see it. Given our intrinsic and acquired pitfalls, we might not be able to save Eritrea from Issayas’ jaws. So, how about getting engaged, huddling together in even to the extent of your characterization above, ‘….’ before history’s final verdict is passed on our nation. Singing lamentations to our eventual demise, we ‘die’ with the word Eritrea emitted with our last breath. As in the Norse mythological saga, we may give the ‘enemy’ victory but not honor; we may have been defeated, but lost beautifully and magnificently…

    • Robel

      He got the right to think and write that way…it seemed it is you who appears to be un polite and venting!!

  • Habtegiorgis Abraha

    Dear Ali Salem,

    I fully appreciate your resultant map of the Horn of Africa and the would be relatively more equal states who would enjoy more attractive alternative of peaceful balance for a historically turbulent region.

    Imagine states like Luxmberg in Europe that exist peacefully, … it’s beautiful and seems reasonable to think of it. However, I couldn’t make my mind whether you have already crossed the threshold or not for the capablity of your states of developing and surviving inependently.

    As to me, again , as far as things develop peacefully I would be fine with it. Nevertheless, you seem to say that these will cost the peoples’ tooth and nail fights.

    If so, are you implying a process of emptying the human and material potential of the peoples of the Horn for years and years to come; then when they have no more blood left to shed and have nothing to loose anymore, that they would work out back to ‘unity’? (Zebaes zebele kulu hiwetuwin mis TsenqeQe, YifaQer!’). And … … the whole myths of nations!!! I wonder how many Karneshim nations would evolve in the Horn of Africa!

    Here, I would rather stand conservative and dream of good days like what I witness in the Uk, like that of the Scotish people who have the right to freely and at any time decide for their nation’s future without even the need of going out for public demonstrations on the streets let alone shed their blood!!!

    From that example, I wish you on your project, and all of us focus about legal systems, institutions, and of its mechanisms that enable us to decide freely, peacefully and fairly on matters of grave concern to us!

    And on issues of incentives: personally, I felt you have cynically coloured ‘your’ greater Tigrai map in red. That aside, as far as I understand none of that section of the populations (the 3/4 peasants) in any national/ ethnic groups have ever started any war or struggle regardless of its purpose. All attempts of struggles I know so far have started for petty powers – be it eco. political, … by petty quasy intellectual groups, the E.L.F leaders in Cairo, the University student of TPLF leadership, EPRP leaders, … ; and definitly the purpose of any of these organisations and others have never been motivated or initiated by land! Neither I nor the friends I know closely,e.g., joined the E.L.F. for the purpose of land!!! I couldn’t make any sense of your assumption and its subsequent conclussions to bring the land issue as an incentive for people to fight tooth and nail; and still that to remain as the core problem in the future. I felt like that you are copying some unrelated and uncorrosponding situations from your knowledge of the Isreal – Palestinian/Arab scenario.

    Cheers !!!!!!!! !

  • http://www.awate.com Olana

    It is your daydream Mr. Ali. It is not good to wish bad luck for others because your country is in chios. you are having sleepless nights to see Ethiopia becoming stronger and stronger. Be optimist and try to see the other side, the bright side. Such useless ideas of yours will not help anyone.

  • Hayat Adem

    Dear Ali Salim,
    I almost always enjoy your contrariety but there are continuity and seriousness in your thoughts.
    It is our Eritrea which is faltering at speed here. Other countries in the neighborhood are doing fine- a couple of them very well, a couple others not that well… If you don’t see any hope of cure for our Eritrea, try hard to squeeze your brain and come up with something or join brains with others. If your brain is not smart enough to search for a cure to your home, then call it a day and retire of thinking. You don’t have to plot it bigger and invite other countries into a mess. They are not asking for your help and they are managing their business relatively well without one. Don’t you think it looks bad on you when you shy away from dealing with Eritrea and you are extrapolating and black-blanketing the entire region with Eritrea’s problems? It always amazes me…I was once a student in Asmara University. Ah! zeymizikaru yiHayish…At AU campus, power used to go off pretty often. When this happened in an exam week, there were few students who used to cheer up the power-off and welcome the darkness. Why do you think that was so? Because they thought they were left behind to get prepared for their exams and instead of trying what they can to catch up with their studies, they welcomed the darkness for all denying others the chance for a smooth go. If I think I can not make it, let me make it hard on others…that is PIA…but the lazy students of AU and Ali are not doing anything to make it hard on others; they are wishing bad on others. That is not a positive brain, not even close!!!

    • Zegeremo

      As a wise man once said ” you can’t handle the reality.” …..cheap shots and personal attacks , ugh!

      • Hayat Adem

        What reality? Even Ali didn’t say he was reflecting on any reality. His was more of an imaginative stretch if you will. What threw me off was that I like his write-ups and I was deceived to waste my time reading his half-cooked thoughts.

  • http://- L.T

    It is better to remapping igain in future for this conflict line in Horn and are the best solution right now.
    The big quesition is still there becouse if Bega gone forever to east and the tigringa speakers will be one to great Eritrea with their brothers the Semitic one with open Red sea and if Afar went into one Afer under USA protcet but the rest Jeberti,Saho and Blin will start gun revolt fire against all odds.
    For my part this choosing is great.
    Ali Slaim,you forget Gash Bark area with its full of baskt of food.

  • Eyob Medhane

    The writer “wet dream” is very well expressed in his “future predictive” maps. A disintegrated Ethiopia. That is the same with. Isayas’ “100 years homework” he claimed he gave EPRDF. Yet, he is the one who ended up trapped in a deep hole, and still going deeper in that dark hole. Ill wish and dooms day scenario is becoming a trade mark of many Eritreans, who started to feel their “independent nation” they dreamed of turned out of to be a bust and not much it was cracked out to be. The solution they come up with? Well, disintegration of the neighbors and some ethnic group the don’t like with in themselves. Why? Because if they can’t have it, no one will.

  • wediere

    Selamat Ali,

    Yegermal mentions the convergence of thought with YG, while yours is a kind of a leap to the future rather than wining about the past and sends the right message to those who make it a hobby trashing a peoples struggle and seek to reverse and reconfigure without consideration and sensibilities. That is bound to create more cracks that is out of their visions with the potential to lead us to more breakdown in the future.

    Once we have peace within our nations, the HoA will be a peaceful region and the many lofty ideas of integrations will only then be possible. Otherwise with the regressive situation of lawlessness that we see (not only in Eritrea), governments loosing control……………once a local population is exposed to abuses with no protection, it will be the right breeding ground for warlordism, creation of fiefdoms and eventual breakdown of the nation states.

    Should that materialise, considering the other factors, we are doomed to hell on earth.

    Regards
    AOsman

  • Eri Eri

    In Eritrea people have no problem and the state building process has been evolved good. Especially in future our people will have more harmony because he will get more economic opportunity democracy , dignity, human right. Only if people miss those cardinal factors ( real democracy & economic opportunities ), it will go to civil strife. We had so many failures during those last 21 years , but the failure will be a big opportunity for our future success in democracy & economic prosperity . In my view unlike the assumption of the author Eritrea will be evolved in to more coherent & peaceful state.

  • Eri Eri

    You can’t unify multi ethnic people by controlling, but if you fulfill dignity, human right & dignity as well as economic opportunity, the people will be in harmony & won’t have time to think about conflict. America is a good example. In America there are hundreds minorities , but they live peacefully b/c they have economic opportunity ( i.e b/c their pocket is full ).

  • kk

    the only solution for the above scinario not to happen is to previal justice and freedom for every citizen within the rule of low. thank you for reminding those who feel superior.

  • Horizon

    Is this what people call reversed or lateral thinking? Is it possible to solve the problems of the HoA using unnatural scenarios, making some regions disappear and others appear from nowhere?
    One can reach America by travelling westwards or eastwards. The same is not true for the HoA. It is not possible to solve the problems the horn by breaking up the region into unviable mini-states, thus going back to the past. The recipe is a sort of economic and political integration between the already existing nations and not creating tectonic folds where they do not exist. We have already too many ghosts haunting the region. No need to invite others.

  • gg

    If Ethiopia continues doing well economically, the dream of separating from the “colonial” Ethiopia will die.That is why the once popular Kinijit is dying. Even OLF is abanding its age long desire of separation from Ethiopia(the formation of new democratic party by the main founding father of former OLF leader is a good example. ) Even when we see the number of inflex of people from Ethiopia to middle east via dangerous route, The main reason for inflex is not political. Had their main reason been other than economical, they would not have indengerd their lives , instead they would have fought the regime. This inflex of people too will decline through times. It is not wise for none Muslum Oromo in Wellega Shoa and Borena to be under Muslim(the majority of Oromo people in Ethiopia)adminstration, if Oromia separated from Ethiopia. If free and fair election is caried out in Eritrea in the future, Muslim will take the power. Eritrean highlanders like wise will not be happpy and may choose their father(unionist)agenda.

    So before Ethiopia is separated in two parts according to the last map, the Eritrean highlanders will take wise move; they will be part and parcel of Ethiopia. the objective condition in Afar does not allow to take that kind of move. So Eritrean Afar will choose to be with their keen in the south.

  • Dr X

    Your analysis lucks some basic issues . If Amharic and Tigrigna speaks can live together, what is the need of mapping and remapping then? Isn’t language the factor? which is the source of all the problems

  • T..T.

    Each and every country in all five continents of the world shares at least families/tribes/languages/religion with the surrounding countries and yet each stands as a nation defined by its boundary. It is not non-existent that some countries belong to a single tribe or family, depending on the size of the country, and yet their population may have different political ideology or beliefs.

    In our region, the trio states of the Saana axis, which now includes two other countries: Djibouti and Somalia, have found that their federalism form of governance brought them closer. On the other side, the Saudis, Egypt, and Isayas of Eritrea tried to oppose the regional agreement among those Sanaa club members. Soon, wars of words and conspiracies started between the advancers and dismantlers of the club. Qatar bribed Sudan and Yemen to keep them away, while Ethiopia has kept supporting the club. It is expected that globalization will also fail the efforts of Qatar to dismantle the club. Long before, it is remembered, that some ELF members proposed the SEEDYS (Sudanese, Eritreans [the opposition], Ethiopians, Djiboutian, and the Somalis) as a movement to save our region.

    It depends on the framework of our thinking. Some people (like Isayas) always experience wincing and defensive thinking process and as a result suffer self inflected wounds or blurred decisions that get them into trouble. Such people are always imposing and angry turning a family upside down let alone a united people under one nation, if you don’t accept their dominance. Scary, isn’t it??

  • http://www.asmarino.com Dawit

    You made it as though the region is a cake. You have not taken other factors in to consideration by the way. Factors such as natural resources.

    Nevertheless, your oversimplified treatise either deliberately or inadvertently ignores complexities, and complications inherent in that part of the world.

  • yegermal

    Read the concluding proposal. I can only say, slowly but surely Ali Salim and YG have converged into one mind. ” Land-grabbing” mantra has been abandoned in favor of “Let’s chop up Eritrea into pieces”. Mind you, I am not refuting the merits of the proposal or as you might call it “inevitable outcome” that will finally right the wrong. I suppose, while Africa gets a potent food processor, Europe gets a blender! C’est la vie!

  • yegermal

    Took your advice, skipped the text and studied the map. It makes sense but need to read the text to understand the context:) so I start…

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